Los textos instructivos sirven para dar instrucciones del funcionamiento de un aparato. Son los Textos Instructivos de Función. Son los famosos instructivos.
Tenemos los Textos Instructivos de Proceso, que nos indican paso a paso la elaboración de algo, como ejemplo tenemos una receta de cocina.
martes, 16 de agosto de 2011
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Although guaranteed information about the information is in many cases impossible, prediction is necessary to allow plans to be made about possible developments; Howard H. Stevenson writes that prediction in business "... is at least two things: Important and hard."
Prediction is closely related to uncertainty. Reference class forecasting was developed to eliminate or reduce uncertainty in prediction.
The etymology of prediction is Latin (præ-, "before," and dicere, "to say").
 Informal prediction from hypothesisOutside the rigorous context of science, prediction is often confused with informed guess or opinion.
A prediction of this kind might be (inductively) valid if the predictor is a knowledgeable person in the field and is employing sound reasoning and accurate data. Large corporations invest heavily in this kind of activity to help focus attention on possible events, risks and business opportunities, using futurists. Such work brings together all available past and current data, as a basis to develop reasonable expectations about the future.
 Opinion pollspolitics it is common to attempt to predict the outcome of elections via political forecasting techniques (or assess the popularity of politicians) through the use of opinion polls. Prediction games have been used by many corporations and governments to learn about the most likely outcome of future events.
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 Supernatural (prophecy)Main article: Prophecy
Predictions have often been made, from antiquity until the present, by using paranormal or supernatural means such as prophecy or by observing omens. Methods including water divining, astrology, numerology, fortune telling, interpretation of dreams, and many other forms of divination, have been used for millennia to attempt to predict the future. These means of prediction have not been substantiated by controlled experiments, and are disputed by most, including scientists and skeptics.
 Prediction in sciencegravity with a specified and constant acceleration. The scientific method is built on testing assertions that are logical consequences of scientific theories. This is done through repeatable experiments or observational studies.
A scientific theory whose assertions are contradicted by observations and evidence will be rejected. Notions that make no testable predictions are usually considered not to be part of science (protoscience or nescience) until testable predictions can be made.
New theories that generate many new predictions can more easily be supported or falsified (see predictive power).
In some cases the probability of an outcome, rather than a specific outcome, can be predicted, for example in much of quantum physics.
Mathematical equations and models, and computer models, are frequently used to describe the past and future behaviour of something.
In microprocessors, branch prediction permits avoidance of pipeline emptying at branch instructions. In engineering, possible failure modes are predicted and avoided by correcting the mechanism causing the failure.
Accurate prediction and forecasting are very difficult in some areas, such as software reliability, natural disasters, pandemics, demography, population dynamics and meteorology.
 Scientific hypothesis and predictionEstablished science makes useful predictions which are considered to be extremely reliable and accurate; for example, eclipses are routinely predicted.
New theories make predictions which allow them to be falsified if the predictions are not borne out. For example in the early twentieth century the scientific consensus was that there was an absolute frame of reference, given the name luminiferous ether. The famous Michelson-Morley experiment ruled this out, falsifying the idea of an absolute frame and leaving the very counter-intuitive special theory of relativity as the only possibility.
Albert Einstein's theory of general relativity could not easily be tested as it did not produce any effects observable on a terrestrial scale. However, the theory predicted that large masses such as stars would bend light, in contradiction to accepted theory; this was observed in a 1919 eclipse.
 Financestock market behaviour are also unreliable in predicting future behaviour. Consequently, stock investors may anticipate or predict a stock market boom, or fail to anticipate or predict a stock market crash.
Some correlation has been seen between actual stock market movements and prediction data from large groups in surveys and prediction games.
An actuary uses actuarial science to assess and predict future business risk, such that the risk(s) can be mitigated.
For example, in insurance an actuary would use a life table to predict (truly, estimate or compute) life expectancy.
 Vision and prophecyIn literature, vision and prophecy are literary devices used to present a possible timeline of future events. They can be distinguished by vision referring to what an individual sees happen. The New Testament book of Revelation (Bible) thus uses vision as a literary device in this regard. It is also prophecy or prophetic literature when it is related by an individual in a sermon or other public forum.
 Prediction in fictionFiction (especially fantasy, forecasting and science fiction) often features instances of prediction achieved by unconventional means.
- In fantasy literature, predictions are often obtained through magic or prophecy, sometimes referring back to old traditions. For example, in J. R. R. Tolkien's The Lord of the Rings, many of the characters possess an awareness of events extending into the future, sometimes as prophecies, sometimes as more-or-less vague 'feelings'. The character Galadriel, in addition, employs a water "mirror" to show images, sometimes of possible future events.
- In some of Philip K. Dick's stories, mutant humans called precogs can foresee the future (ranging from days to years). In the story called The Golden Man, an exceptional mutant can predict the future to an indefinite range (presumably up to his death), and thus becomes completely non-human, an animal that follows the predicted paths automatically. Precogs also play an essential role in another of Dick's stories, The Minority Report, which was turned into a film by Steven Spielberg in 2002.
- In the Foundation series by Isaac Asimov, a mathematician finds out that historical events (up to some detail) can be theoretically modelled using equations, and then spends years trying to put the theory in practice. The new science of psychohistory founded upon his success can simulate history and extrapolate the present into the future.
- In Frank Herbert's sequels to Dune, his characters are dealing with the repercussions of being able to see the possible futures and select amongst them. Herbert sees this as a trap of stagnation, and his characters follow a Golden Path out of the trap.
- In Ursula K. Le Guin's The Left Hand of Darkness, the humanoid inhabitants of planet Gethen have mastered the art of prophecy and routinely produce data on past, present or future events on request. In this story, this was a minor plot device.
 See also
- Consensus forecasts
- Delphi method
- Egain Forecasting
- Famous predictions
- Futures Studies
- Optimism bias
- Prediction interval
- Prediction market
- Predictions of Soviet collapse
- Predictive medicine
- Reference class forecasting
- Regression analysis
- Thought experiment
- Traffic forecasting
- Trend estimation
- Weather forecasting
3. TechCast Article Series, Professor William Halal, TechCast Future Prediction
- ^ Stevenson, Howard, ed. Do lunch or be lunch. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1998
- ^ Flyvbjerg, B., 2008, "Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice." European Planning Studies, vol. 16, no. 1, January, pp. 3-21.
- ^ Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle
Retrieved from "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction"
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- This page was last modified on 15 August 2011 at 21:25.
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